Slumping Dirk Makes Mavs Look MVP-less

The Dallas Mavericks have opened the season 16-9. By comparison, the Mavs didn’t lose their ninth game until January 25th last season. And that was after starting out 0-4.

The most glaring reason for this drop off is a lack of production from reigning MVP, Dirk Nowitzki. On the surface Dirk’s numbers (21.4 pts, 8.3 rebs, 3.8 asts) aren’t bad. But in actuality, Nowitzki’s game doesn’t pack the same punch it has over the past several seasons.

Number 41 may simply be suffering from a MVP hangover and could end up with a great year. But his lack of consistent scoring leaves the Mavericks with an offense that needs more bite. This has been especially true in their inability to close out games or put bad teams away.

Nowitzki’s field goal percentage is down from last year, but he’s shooting 47%. Where he’s really losing his offensive power is behind painted lines. A career 86% foul shooter, he’s currently at 83%, which is down from the past two seasons when he averaged over 90%. From three-point range he’s hitting a horrible 29%, the lowest of his career except his rookie year.

And when Dirk struggles, it puts a lot of pressure on guys like Jason Terry, and Jerry Stackhouse. Unfortunately, Jet and Stack are both volume shooters who can be streaky. And if they shoot poorly on a night when Nowitzki’s shot isn’t dropping, it’s bad news for Dallas.

Assuming Nowitzki can regain his touch, the Mavericks should be fine. In the meantime Josh Howard has stepped up to lead the Mavericks in scoring at 22 points. History shows that when Howard hits the 20-point mark, the Mavs are nearly unbeatable. However, now that he’s scoring more, can that trend continue? If so, perhaps it’s possible Dallas has another MVP candidate on its roster.